Air temperature

 

This summer started with cold weather in the ETR: in the first decade, the average air temperature was lower than normal almost everywhere, by three or more degrees lower in the North-West Federal District and in the north of the Central Federal District. Frosts were recorded in the Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vologda, Tver and Kostroma Regions. The abnormal colds spread to even larger area in the second decade, but reached their peak in the third decade when -3° anomalies were measured not only in the north of Russia, but in its central regions as well. Frosts and new temperature minima were now observed in Karelia, in the Murmansk, Tambov, Kostroma and Moscow Regions, as well as in the Perm Territory and the Republics of Komi and Bashkiria.

The Urals and most of Siberia basked in warmth in the first decade: there, positive anomalies of decade-averaged temperatures reached as high as +6…8°. The heat with new temperature maxima occupied the Tomsk, Kemerovo, Omsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen Regions, the Altai Territory and the Republic of Altai, reaching or exceeding +35° in the south of Western Siberia or similar figures in the Krasnoyarsk Territory where the daily temperature maxima would be updated for several days in a row. However, everything changed in the second and third decades when the colds spread there as well, and the decade-averaged temperatures became 3-5 or more degrees lower than normal.

In Yakutia and in the north of the Far East, the weather was noticeably warmer than usual for most of June, and the temperature averages in the first and third decades were 3-6° higher than normal. New daily maxima in excess of +30-35° were set in Yakutia and in the Magadan Region, and the new maximum of air temperature in June equal to +31.7° was established in Oimyakon nicknamed "the pole of cold." In the north of the Far East, this June was the fourth warmest in the history of meteorological observations.

The temperature monthly-averaged over the entire territory of the Russian Federation was close to normal (with an anomaly of +0.3°); if the European Territory alone is considered, it was colder than normal (by two or more degrees in some places), and if the Asian Territory alone, warmer than normal (e.g., by 2-4 or more degrees in the east of Yakutia and the north of the Far East).

In East Asia, the weather was hot, so that the normal monthly-averaged temperatures were exceeded everywhere, by two or more degrees in some regions of China and Japan. In China, the unprecedented monthly-averaged temperature recorded a year before was reproduced, and the absolute maximum temperatures ever observed in June were overridden in a number of locations including Beijing.

The monthly-averaged air temperatures in the countries of South-East Asia were also above-normal everywhere.

In India, the air temperature in the north and east exceeded +45° in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Mahya Pradesh. The weather was somewhat colder than usual in the north-west of the country only; elsewhere, the temperature averages exceeded the normal values.

In the Near and Middle East, with the exception of Turkey, the weather was warmer than usual. For example, the air temperature in Israel reached +40° on the first days of June already, and new maxima in excess of +43° were set in a number of locations: such high temperatures at the beginning of summer are not typical there. The normal temperatures in a large part of Iran were exceeded by two or more degrees. In the rest of the region, the normal values prevailed.

The same can be said about Central Asia where the temperatures were generally normal, but exceeded the normal values by two or more degrees in individual regions. The thermometer readings rose above 40° in the central part of Kazakhstan, and the weather was unusually hot in Kyrgyzstan where new maxima were set at times in places including Bishkek, the capital of the country.

The air temperatures across the African continent in the Northern Hemisphere were approximately normal.

The weather in most of Europe was abnormally warm, or rather abnormally hot in the west and north-west of the continent where the normal air temperatures were exceeded by 2-3 or more degrees. As reported by the UK meteorological office, this June became the warmest in the history of the country, and eclipsed the previous record-breaking June 1940 by almost a degree. New daily temperature maxima were set in Norway, Finland and Estonia, and the thermometer readings repeatedly rose above +30° at many meteorological stations of the continent. The only exception where the weather was somewhat cooler than usual was the south-east of Europe. At the beginning of the month, the colds were observed in Belarus and Latvia, and even new daily minima of air temperature were recorded there.

Just as May, this June in Canada was the warmest in the meteorological history. All the territories of the country except for Newfoundland received more heat than normal, and the normal values were exceeded by at least 2-3° in most of them. The monthly-averaged air temperature in the US, the southern neighbour of Canada, was close to normal: two or more degrees higher than normal in the states bordering Canada, and somewhat lower than normal to the south. In Mexico, the air temperature exceeded its normal value by 2-4 or more degrees, and the heat could reach 40° or above.

As for the entire Northern Hemisphere, its average air temperature reproduced (to an accuracy of 0.1°C) the absolute maximum first set in June 2016 and then repeated multiple times.

In Moscow, the average temperature in June was +16.8°, i.e., 0.5° lower than normal. The previous anomalously cold June in the capital was observed in 2017.

 

Has El Niño started? In June, the SST in the equatorial belt of the Pacific Ocean was much higher than normal, with +1…2° anomalies off the coast of South America. This was one of the signs pointing at the start of El Niño. However, the generally accepted rule is to consider El Niño active if anomalies higher than 0.5° persist for three months in succession; yet, before this June, such anomalies were observed in May only. No doubt that this would also happen in July adding to three months in total, but El Niño could be formally called active no earlier than that.

In the Pacific Ocean, positive SST anomalies as high as in the equatorial zone were observed at tropical and temperate latitudes, but the water in the north of the Ocean and off the coasts of California and Mexico was colder than normal.

The Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere was "boiling," the average SST reaching a new absolute maximum that exceeded the previous one set in 1998 by no less than 0.4°. Over a large area, anomalies at tropical and temperate latitudes were 1-2 or more degrees. As in the Pacific Ocean, cold water was solely observed in the north, and also in the vicinity of Newfoundland.

This June, the weather remained basically dry in most of the ETR, resulting in a shortage of precipitation in many constituent entities of the Federation. In the North-West Federal District, the normal precipitation figures were only reached in the far north, solely owing to unprecedented rains at the end of the first decade, and snowfalls were still observed at the beginning of May. In the Central Federal District, the normal precipitation amounts were only achieved in the Tambov, Voronezh, Kursk and Belgorod Regions in the south, while in the Volga Federal District, only in Penza Region. The Federal Districts to receive sufficient or even above-normal precipitation were Southern and North-Caucasian ones: there, showers were frequent in any decade of the month, their intensity amounting up to 50 mm per day in the Krasnodar Territory. In Sochi and Ossetia, floods were reported, and emergency conditions were declared for this reason. The normal precipitation figures were achieved in all entities of the above Districts, or even exceeded by 1.5 or more times in Kalmykia, Dagestan, North Ossetia, Chechnya and Ingushetia.

Either normal or above-normal precipitation amounts were measured in the Urals; however, drought was observed in the Chelyabinsk Region at the same time.

A lot of precipitation, 1.5-2.0 times the normal quantities in places, came to the north of Siberia, whereas in its south, the figures were noticeably less than normal in the Novosibirsk and Kemerovo Regions, as well as in Altai and Tyva: drought was also observed in some of the latter areas.

Precipitation was sub-normal in the north-east of Russia (in Yakutia, Kolyma and Kamchatka); on the other hand, the south of the Khabarovsk Territory and the Primorye Territory were flooded in full, with up to 100 mm of rainwater accumulated daily in certain places, and new daily maxima of precipitation totals reported. The normal monthly amounts in the Primorye Territory and the Jewish Autonomous Region were exceeded by 1.5 or more times.

Japan, Korea and the southern regions of China were in the grip of monsoon. As it should be, rains were observed there, of high intensity sometimes: up to 50 mm/hour. Still, the monthly precipitation totals exceeded their normal values in a few places only. In the north of China and in Mongolia, the monthly precipitation averages were less than normal.

In South-East Asia, the summer monsoon did not gather its full force yet, and the monthly precipitation totals were close to normal. Mudflows were reported in Thailand. The drought in the north of Vietnam was deemed the worst in the last twenty years by local experts.

The rainy season started in the north-west of India and in Pakistan, bringing 1.5-2.0 times the normal precipitation amounts to some places. But in most of India, no rains were observed yet.

No rains fell in the Near East, with the exception of Turkey and Transcaucasia. In the neighbouring Iran, rains were falling since the end of May, resulting in floods in the central part of the country.

The weather in most of Central Asia was dry.

In North Africa, rains were recorded to the south of Sahara where the precipitation amounts reached significant values in some places.

Save for Spain, Portugal, the south-west of France and the Balkans, the weather in most of Europe was dry, with the precipitation amounts notably less than normal. A serious shortage of precipitation that has never been observed since 1945 was reported in Belarus. Droughts both in Belarus and in its neighbouring Lithuania were reported. On the contrary, downpours in Romania caused floods that destroyed houses and roads. According to local authorities, no natural disaster of such a scale has ever happened in the west of the country.

Dry weather prevailed in most of North America. In Canada, the absence of rains and the extremely high air temperature led to numerous fires from British Columbia to Nova Scotia, i.e., from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean: a situation that has never been faced before. In the US, rains were also rare, so that the total monthly rainfall amounts reached the normal values in the north and south-east of the country only. The weather was altogether dry in Mexico where the shallowing of rivers and water storages was reported.

In Moscow, 74 mm of precipitation fell in June, which is the normal amount.

* The air temperature anomalies have been calculated basing on the normal values for 1991-2020, the anomalies of precipitation totals in the Northern Hemisphere, on the normal values for 1961-1990, and the anomalies of precipitation totals in Russia, including Moscow, on the normal values for 1991-2020.